Vol 5 No 1 (2019)

Demand Estimates and Projections for Meat in Pakistan by the Year 2030 AD

Authors:
Dr. Khalid Mahmood Aujla
Principal Scientific Officer/ Director (ASTI), Social Sciences Division, PARC, Islamabad
Jamil Lund
Principal Scientific Officer/Director, SARC, Karachi
Abid Hussain
Senior Scientific Officer, Social Sciences Research Institute, NARC, Islamabad
Muhammad Asif
Principal Scientific Officer / Director, P&D Division, PARC, Islamabad

Abstract:
The demand for meat in the Pakistan has been estimated for the year 2012 and based on this projections are made for the year 2030. Seemingly unrelated regression equations by assuming log-linear specification have been used to analyze the effects of income and prices on the meat demand. The study is based on Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) data2010-11 and national level secondary data. Analysis of HIES data indicate that meat shares 3.8% in monthly household expenditures in the country. Per capita annual beef, mutton, chicken and fish consumptions in the country are2.7, 0.8, 3.4 and 0.6 kg, respectively. Consumption of all meat types per person is high in urban areas than in rural localities. Demand for mutton, chicken, and fish are relatively more income elastic in urban areas than rural areas, while opposite is the case with beef demand. Own prices elasticities of all meat types have expected negative signs. Beef and mutton demands are comparatively more price elastic in rural areas, while chicken and fish have more price elastic demands in urban regions. National demand for beef, mutton, chicken and fish in the year 2012 are estimated at about 1590.2, 560.2, 740.9 and 361.4 thousand tones, respectively. The demand projections for beef, mutton, chicken and fish corresponding to 3.6% GDP growth for the year 2030 are 4236.4, 1136.8, 2699.7 and 574.1 thousand tones, respectively. Demand for these commodities is expected to grow by the year 2030 at 5.6, 4.0, 7.4 and 2.6% per annum, respectively. Thus, high growth in demand of all meat types may result into escalation in prices. This may have serious implications for the people to afford consumption of healthy diets in future


SALU-CER Editor in Chief
Working as faculty member in institute of Commerce Shah Abdul Latif University Khairpur since 12 September 1996. At present working as Professor and Director Institute of Commerce of Shah Abdul Latif University Khairpur. Also working as founder Editor-in-Chief of SALU-Commerce & Economics Review since 2015.

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