Demand and Supply Estimates and Projections for Beef in Pakistan by the Year 2030.

Khalid Mahmood Aujla
Principal Scientific Officer, Social Sciences Division, PARC, Islamabad,Pakistan

Jamil Ahmed Lund
Principal Scientific Officer

Abid Hussain
Senior Scientific Officer (ASTI), Social Sciences Division, PARC, Islamabad

Abstract:-

The demand and supply for beef in Pakistan has been estimated and projections are

made for the year 2030. Seemingly unrelated regression equation by assuming a log-
linear specification has been used to analyze the effects of income and prices on the beef

demand. Polynomial price lag model has been employed for supply side analysis. Both
demand and growth rate models make supply projections for beef. The study is based on
field survey data collected in the year 2013, HIES data 2010-11 and time series data for
the period 1980-81 to 2011-12. Beef is essential food item, having both positive
income/expenditure and price elasticities. Demand for beef is more income elastic in
rural areas as compared to urban regions. The results of supply side analysis have
shown that price elasticity of beef is positive and statistically significant, implying that
higher beef prices stimulate the production. Similarly, total numbers of buffalo and
cattle animal units for beef production contribute positively and significantly to the
production. The demand projection corresponding to moderate-income growth rate and
supply projection based on polynomial price lag model indicate a huge deficit in the
beef production by the year 2030. This may results into increase in the prices and
decrease in consumption of beef. Thus, immediate policy reforms are required to control
the gap between demand and supply of beef for future in the country.


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