Authors: Khalid Mahmood Aujla Principal Scientific Officer, Social Sciences Division, PARC, Islamabad, Pakistan Jamil Ahmed Lund Principal Scientific Officer Abid Hussain Senior Scientific Officer (ASTI), Social Sciences Division, PARC, Islamabad
Abstract: The demand and supply for beef in Pakistan has been estimated and projections are made for the year 2030. Seemingly unrelated regression equation by assuming a loglinear specification has been used to analyze the effects of income and prices on the beef demand. Polynomial price lag model has been employed for supply side analysis. Both demand and growth rate models make supply projections for beef. The study is based on field survey data collected in the year 2013, HIES data 2010-11 and time series data for the period 1980-81 to 2011-12. Beef is essential food item, having both positive income/expenditure and price elasticities. Demand for beef is more income elastic in rural areas as compared to urban regions. The results of supply side analysis have shown that price elasticity of beef is positive and statistically significant, implying that higher beef prices stimulate the production. Similarly, total numbers of buffalo and cattle animal units for beef production contribute positively and significantly to the production. The demand projection corresponding to moderate-income growth rate and supply projection based on polynomial price lag model indicate a huge deficit in the beef production by the year 2030. This may results into increase in the prices and decrease in consumption of beef. Thus, immediate policy reforms are required to control the gap between demand and supply of beef for future in the country.